Friday, August 26, 2011
Do You Actually Lose Everytime That You Invest In Property for the Long-term?
Friday, August 19, 2011
Is Gold Still A Good Investment Despite the Current Run-up?
• Unsurprisingly, two thirds of American women say that they think of their Gold jewellery as an investment, and the one to be treasured and handed down to future generations. 72% of US women feel that Gold is an everlasting gift.
• As per market sources, total Gold imports in India amounted to around 750 tons during 2010 compared to around 557 tons of Gold imports in 2009. And this, when Gold prices have risen steeply in recent times, indicating a huge demand surge which continues...
• Whilst over 50% of Gold jewellery is bought for weddings, the wedding anniversary has now become the most aspirational occasion for receiving Gold today, extending a couple’s relationship with Gold beyond the marriage ceremony.
• Gold as an investment asset has given positive returns for each year during the last decade, outpacing most of asset classes, including Stocks in this respect! Gold has provided compounded annual returns of 17.68% during the decade. Gold ended the decade with a bang and moved up by 27.92% during the year 2010 making a new high for tenth year in a row. Systematically investing (SIP) in Gold has given returns of 27.92%, 23.28%, 22.51% and 20.16% on an annual basis in the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years respectively!!!!
• The risk of sovereign default because of higher debt burden, rising fear of inflation as a result of loose monetary and fiscal policies, uncertainties associated with global growth outlook and the thrust for portfolio diversification were few of prime drivers that help Gold prices move higher. Situation remains unchanged to a great extent and the concerns that kept Gold prices at elevated levels are not yet addressed. The risk of sovereign debt default continues, concerns over rising inflation and weaker outlook for US dollar still remain. Central banks, having huge Foreign Exchange reserves, like India and China, have started diversification away from US dollar and they will require huge quantum of Gold in further, which is likely to keep driving its price higher.
One can invest in Gold in any of the three ways: Jewellery, coins/bars, Gold ETFs / Mutual Funds.
• Out of these three ways, jewellery is inherently an expensive, risky and inefficient preposition. Risk of impurity, high ‘making’ charges, coloured stones sold as part of Gold but not accepted back as its part, safe-keeping, etc make it untenable as an investment (as different from ornaments for personal use).
• Gold coins/ bars bought from banks and jewellers could be 17-20% or even more expensive than the market price while remaining to be risky and bulky method to store. Also, the banks, as on today, are not allowed to buy back gold while they are allowed to sell them!
• A modern way of accumulating Gold is to go the mutual fund way where your investment could go in bulk of any amount or periodic investment for as low as Rs 100 per month can be made to enable you to buy equivalent of 24 Carat Gold without any risk of handling or losing of value (as for jewellery). Such a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) will enable you to buy a large quantity of Gold over a period of time with small periodic investments at a good average price.
• Opens doors for non-demat a/c holders: Investors can invest in this fund either online or through the physical mode across the country thereby making it easily available and convenient for ‘non demat a/c holders’
• Systematic Investment Plan (SIP): SIP investment technique enables you the following benefits:
Small, regular investments: A simple way to enter Gold by investing small amounts. Small but regular investments go a long way in creating wealth over time
Rupee cost averaging: Fewer units during rising markets and more units during falling markets, thereby reducing the average cost per unit
No need for ‘timing the markets’: No need to select the right time and quantity to buy and sell as timing the market is time consuming and risky. It eliminates the need to actively track the markets.
• Availability of add-on facilities: Ease of availing add on facilities like Systematic Transfer Plan/ Systematic Withdrawal Plan / Systematic Investment Plan/ auto switch /trigger facility etc.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Stock Markets have Crashed ..... EXCELLENT NEWS!!
As the global markets went into a tailspin two weeks back and continue till writing this mail, comparisons to the financial crisis of 2008 are inevitable. I am getting a large number of calls every day from investors whether it is time to get out of equity markets now – things could get much worse. They say, it is just like the bad old days of September 2008.
Or maybe not! There are two ways one can react to having lived through some great market disasters. Either, you can stay permanently scared, going into a panic every time the conditions resemble the original disaster. Or, as a bona fide survivor of the original, you can be wiser and more confident of facing up to whatever the future can throw at you. It should be self-evident that the worst thing to do now would be to panic. We've had a few weeks of bad news, both domestically as well as globally. It's easy to get influenced by all this talk, especially because of the noise emanating from the investment media. However, you must remember that most of this noise is targeted at short-term traders. If the FIIs are shorting the indices over the next few days or if they are going to pull out cash for a month or so, then it matters to these people.
For long-term investors in equity funds who are investing regularly (either through SIPs or directly), none of this should matter. We need to remind ourselves that things in India are bad only on a relative scale - relative to the rest of the world, relative to what they could have been, even relative to what they should have been. However, in a crisis like this, you need to focus on the absolutes, not the relatives. This is still an economy that's growing faster than much of the world and will continue to do so for a long time. There are plenty of businesses of all sorts that will generate wealth. Our job, as long-term investors, is to make sure that we can reap the rewards by investing steadily for the long term.
You see, the lessons of 2008-09 are absolutely clear. Back in 2008-09, the only investors who lost out were the ones who cashed out or stopped investing when the markets plunged and then stayed away. In the long run, all that happened was that when the buying opportunity was at its best, they were running scared. Eventually, the only winners were the ones who let their SIPs continue, taking advantage of the low NAVs.
In fact, there's one new twist in this tale that makes it all the more important that you don't start running scared. What was witnessed in 2008-09 was a crisis. I suspect that what is setting-in now is not a crisis but a prolonged disease. After all, how many of us expect that the debts of USA will go away soon, or the half-a-dozen sick European economies will get magically cured or that Indian Govt will start focusing on quality infrastructure in a hurry? Thus, as per my reading, it is just a matter of sometime before the markets will realise that this condition is here to stay, take it in its own stride and get on with the business like in pre-last-Thursday days. It should soon be business as usual and all the valuations and the mathematical mumbo-jumbo should adjust to this reality.
As far as I am concerned, I am looking around for some loose cash to buy as many quality Mutual Funds as I can get my hands on over a period of time starting from now. And, of course, not to forget Gold for some more time...
Saturday, August 13, 2011
RETIRE RICH, LIVE COMFORTABLY IN YOUR GOLDEN YEARS
The other big challenge for retires comes from an enemy that is both stealthy and relentless - inflation. Just as compounding works to grow your corpus, inflation eats away at its value. The sum of Rs 1 crore may seem like a lot of money today but over 30 years, an inflation of 8% can reduce its equivalent purchasing value to less than Rs 10 lakhs of today!! And to think that consumer-level inflation today actually is in double digits. A low-to-moderate inflation rate of 7-8% does not attract attention of the working class. That’s because incomes prices of products and services do not seem to be shooting up ‘fast’ but it nevertheless erodes your money-value ever so quietly!
Dangers of Living Long Only on Govt Pension
And in case somebody feels that he has approx Rs 50 lakh corpus of retirement benefits which will help him live well, calculations again show that if he invests this sum at 8% per annum in very safe investment avenues and gets the returns, he will start eating into this corpus from the age of 66 years (ie just 12 years after retirement) and by the age of 80 years (ie 27 years after retirement), there will be no corpus left! Also remember that we are only talking about normal day-to-day living, no big purchases – not even change of a car ever or gifts for children / grand-children or holidays or repayment of a home loan. And if inflation goes into double digits as it is today, heavens will surely fall!
So it is clear that inflation eats away your entire guaranteed pension. There is a significant gap between the income and expenses and this gap can create a serious problem in future. It is advisable to invest adequate a disciplined amount regularly in some high growth investment avenues while you are serving, which generates high return that will not only support your expenses after you stop earning but will help you pursue your dreams post-retirement.
Follow this four-step retirement strategy to build up a healthy nest-egg:-
o Your house will be paid off (no rent/loan).
o No work-related expenses (commuting, changing of clothes frequently, shifting, etc).
o Your children will be financially independent.
o Fewer taxes because of lower income and No debt of any sort.
Don’t pull all your nest eggs in one basket. That’s too risky a strategy for something as important as retirement. The nest egg should be a mix of different asset classes and investment instruments. Equities offer a distinct advantage because they can deliver significantly higher returns than other investment over the long term. Investors whose retirement is 20-25 years away should ideally park their investment in equity mutual funds. For older investors in their 40s and 50s, a larger allocation to debt is advisable. However, this is a generalized statement and finally, everything depends on your risk attitude and aptitude (calculate your Risk Aptitude from the calculator on our website www.humfauji.com).
Once you have decided your asset allocation, choose the investment vehicles that will take you to your destination. Instead of investing in a single scheme, do so in a bunch of instruments, which not only assure regular income but also allow your corpus to grow in tandem with your withdrawals and rising inflation. This strategy should alter with the age or stage of the life after retirement. So, for the first 6-8 years after you retire, allow your funds to grow at faster rate than the withdrawal. Even as you use the interest earned through debt options to meet your expenses, invest in equity through mutual funds or monthly income plans. However, the crux of all investment remains a very aggressive monitoring after you have parked your funds in them.
The final step in your retirement planning is to formulate a withdrawal strategy. Your retirement portfolio must have two essential components: liquidity and growth. It should provide you regular income and also grow fast enough to take care of future expenses. Systematic Withdrawal Plans (SWP) options of the Mutual Funds and rentals from a good residential / commercial property are ideal in this regard.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Financial Planning for Your Children
Financial planning for your children is probably something that takes up a lot of your 'worrying' time. You know that you need to start setting aside money for your child's needs. But what you do not know is the ideal way to go about doing the same. Whether your objective is to provide for your child's marriage, property or seed capital for a business venture for your child, the approach given here holds good.
Due to the nature of the profession, wherein there is constant movement from one end of the country to the other and even abroad; when one does stop for a short while, it is in some unpronounceable place in the middle of nowhere; in the name of a financial advisor or facility, there is a semi-literate, maybe ill-intentioned, insurance agent available, if at all; the stresses and strains of the job keep own well-being far away from the mind; etc. All these issues combine to make a potion which keeps any thoughts of financial planning for own self far away from own conscious. The result is a sudden jolt-like awakening when the requirement is not merely knocking, but loudly banging at the door. Thus, in spite of all diversions, constraints, lack of adequate knowledge and facilities etc, one has to keep at it, come what may.
We take the case of three families who need to plan for their young child’s college 15 years away. Taking today’s College costs to be approx Rs 2.5 Lakhs per year (implying 10 Lakhs for 4 years’ Engineering), with a 6% yearly inflation, it comes to Rs 23.96 Lakhs 15 years later. If the three families put in, say, Rs 1 Lakh today and then decide to pursue different methods of accumulating the balance money for their child, the results could be drastically different. A parent (Parent A), who is willing to take higher risk, would ideally be compensated by a higher return over long term - the portfolio will have a higher concentration of assets like equity mutual funds. Such a portfolio can earn a return of about 15% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate). At the other extreme could be a risk-averse parent (Parent C), who is investing only in schemes like the DSOPF/Public Provident Fund (PPF) and the National Savings Certificate (NSC). He can hope for a return of approx 8% per year. The third parent (Parent B) could take a middle path and have a cautious dabbling of ‘fully safe’ and some equity-oriented flavour. He/she could hope for about 10% per annum return. When we look at what they require to accumulate over a period of time, the results could be as follows:-
Coming to the solution, the first number that hits you in the table above is the 'inflated' cost of education and living expenses 15 years from now. Indeed, if seen in isolation, you might almost give up in terms of ever having enough money to provide for your child's education need. However, what appears impossible is not really so. For a parent with some risk appetite, the money that needs to be set aside every month is just Rs 7,992!
The ‘mantras’ given below may have to be applied as per your specific requirements and risk aptitude, though in most of the cases, their applicability is universal.
• Have a distinct plan in place for each objective: Define each objective that you wish to accomplish i.e. provide for your child's education, marriage or seed capital for a business activity. The next step should be, to have a definite plan in place for each objective, to allocate resources accordingly and most importantly, follow it through and through with discipline.
• Engage the services of a financial planner, if not confident yourself: The importance of engaging the services of an expert and qualified financial planner cannot be overstated. He would make out a balanced portfolio for you to meet your goal and, if he offers those services, may even monitor its progress over its life-time. However, it pays to be actively involved in the entire financial planning activity.
• Don't delay the investment activity: Starting early will enable parents to gain from the "power of compounding". In the example given above, if Parent A, who is taking more risk, starts say 5 years later. He would only accumulate Rs 4,47,819 from his initial Rs 1 Lakh investment and would require Rs 1,82,806 per annum OR Rs 12377 per month or a lump-sum accumulation of Rs 3,91,118 to get the required money for his child. The substantial difference seen above can be attributed to the fact that earlier, he had longer investment tenure and hence could enjoy the benefits of compounding. The message is simple: it pays to start early!
• Don't dip into your child's portfolio: Resist the temptation to utilise the monies that have been set aside for the child's future needs, for your present consumption.
Just common-sense, perseverance and correct identification of objectives is actually all that you require to fulfil your obligations of a parent. It is very important to be proactive, avoid drift and identify the investment avenues that you are comfortable with. But do what you may, please start early – maybe even before the child is born!!
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Insurance and Investment: Don't mix!!
When we go on one of those BRO roads in the border areas, we often encounter the road signs warning us : DRINKING AND DRIVING, DON’T MIX. I want to give out a similar warning to all of the faujis: INSURANCE AND INVESTMENT: DON’T MIX!! I will just quote a recent anecdote to substantiate my point.
One of my NDA course-mate, an Air Force Gp Capt, is shortly quitting the services. Since his insurance cover will be almost down to zero when he leaves, he decided to go in for an insurance to cover his life-risk last week. An LIC agent convinced him to take a ‘good’ policy which will NOT ONLY GIVE GOOD COVER BUT VERY GOOD ‘RETURNS’ TOO. The policy, called ‘Jeevan Anand’ was subscribed for him. He is to pay Rs 60,000/- premium per year for a cover of Rs 7.5 Lakhs. The policy is for duration of 17 years, at the end of which he is to get back double the sum assured (sum assured + bonus, likely to be same as sum assured), ie, Rs 15 Lakhs. It was, thus, projected as a win-win situation for him as he was going to be insured through and through, while he gets back 1.5 times of the premium paid by him if he survives.
When he narrated this to me, I assured him that it was a win-win situation all the way – for his agent, but not for him. His agent was to get a commission of 25% of the premium (Rs 15,000/-) on his policy in the first year, 7.5% (Rs 4500/-) in the 2nd year, and 5% (Rs 3000/-) per year for the balance of the years. Thus, the agent gets a total of Rs 64,000/- in commission (not counting the inflation adjusted value of the present money) due to this single policy. Obviously, his interest is to push such policies which fetch him good commission than the low-commission one which are actually beneficial to you.
To illustrate my point, I gave him a straight example of a pure Term Insurance product. Had he gone in for LIC’s Anmol Jeevan-1 policy, the same cover for the same period of time would have cost him a mere Rs 8,510 per year!! If something happens to him, his survivors get the sum assured of Rs 7.5 Lakhs + the bonus accruing on it which depends on the length of time for which he is in the scheme, same as the scheme sold to him. If nothing happens to him, he gets nothing – something like car insurance. But then he saves Rs 51,490/- per year. This amount, if invested for 17 years in a very safe place like the PPF or his DSOPF on a monthly basis (easier on the pocket and better too), fetches him Rs 19,91,000/- and Rs 30,06,000/- if put in very good 5-Star rated mutual funds (assumed return a very conservative 12% per year) with minimal risk associated with them.
However, the agents will NEVER ever mention term insurance (LIC’s Anmol Jeevan-1 is term insurance policy) to their gullible clients since they get hardly any commission on it. However, term insurance is the way insurance was supposed to be, till the insurance companies got greedy and made it complicated by combining it with all sorts of ‘returns-back’ products. Now, even the clients have got so used to it that they themselves ask – how much returns will they get from that policy, without realising the honey-trap they are walking into.
Tailpiece: If you do have to go in for insurance, take only Term Insurance (LIC’s Anmol Jeevan, ICICI’s Pure Protect, etc). Balance of the money, of which there will be plenty saved, can go into much superior investment products.
Remember, combining insurance with investment is actually, willingly taking worst of both the worlds!!
